Collection of Scenarios > National

Australia:

Zero Carbon Australia Scenarios: Beyond Zero Emissions (BZE) and the University of Melbourne have completed research and developed plans for Australia’s transition to a zero-carbon economy within a decade. All reports be downloaded from here:
http://bze.org.au/what-is-zero-carbon-australia-2020-zca/

- Zero Carbon Australia: Renewable Energy Super Power Plan, 2015
http://bze.org.au/renewable-energy-superpower/

- Zero Carbon Australia: Buildings Plan, 2013
http://bze.org.au/buildings-plan/

- Zero Carbon Australia: Energy Plan (ZCA2020), 2010

100% renewable energy by 2020. The project is entirely the work of a team of volunteer contributors - ordinary Australians with experience and expertise in engineering and other relevant disciplines. Report is published by he University of Melbourne, Energy Research Institute. Download the Report (8.4 MB, 194 pp.) and Synopsis (2 MB, 16 pp.) from:
http://bze.org.au/stationary-energy-plan/


Belarus:

Belarus INFORSE Vision2050, 2008-11
Originally developed by INFORSE in cooperation with Belaya Rus and other Belarus NGOs in 2004. New version was developed in 2008 - 2009 in cooperation with Minsk Division of International Academy of Ecology (MD-IAE). New version available in 2011.
www.inforse.org/europe/VisionBR.htm


Belgium:

‘Energy Revolution' Scenario: A Sustainable Pathway to a clean energy future for Belgium, 2006
Scenario developed by Institute of Technical Thermodynamics, Department of Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment (DLR), Stuttgart, Germany, for Greenpeace Belgium.
In English (0.5 MB, 16 pp.):
http://www.greenpeace.org/belgium/Global/belgium/report/2006/6/energy-revolution-a-sustainab-2.pdf 


Bulgaria:

Bulgarian INFORSE Sustainable Energy Vision 2050, Update 2014, 2010.
The update of the 2010 version was made in the framework of an Ejolt Report in 2014. The version in 2010 was developed by INFORSE-Europe in cooperation with the Bulgarian INFORSE-Europe member Za Zemiata. The Bulgarian Sustainable Energy Vision follows the principles of the INFORSE-Europe's Vision for EU.
Read more at:
http://www.inforse.org/europe/VisionBG.htm
 

Czech Republic:

Smart Energy, 2010
Developed by Hnuti DUHA (Friends of the Earth), Calla, Greenpeace Czech Republic, Veronica and Centre for Transport and Energy.
Based on the study: Lechtenbohmer, S., Prantner, M., et Samadi, S.: Development of alternative energy & climate scenarios for the Czech Republic, Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, Wuppertal 2009.
Link to page to download the English Summary pdf file (0.7 MB, 4 pp.), 2011:
http://www.hnutiduha.cz/publikace/smart-energy-english-summary
Link to the page to download the Czech Version, Chitra Enrgie, 108 pp, 2010:
http://www.hnutiduha.cz/publikace/chytra-energie

Denmark:

"Denmark - 100% Renewble Energy - Vision 2030", INFORSE-Europe and the Danish Organization for Sustainable Energy (OVE). Update in 2014. Earlier updates: 2009, 2005.
- Read on the Scenario at INFORSE-Europe's web site at
  http://www.inforse.org/europe/VisionDK.htm
- Direct link to an article pdf file (200 kB, 6 pp.) in English in 2014:
  http://www.inforse.org/europe/pdfs/Vision_DK_Fast_Transtions_RE_Denmark_article_EN_2014.pdf
- Direct link to the 2014 version pdf file (3.8 MB) update in Danish:
  http://www.ve.dk/images/energivisionen/vedvarendeenergi_energivision_2014.pdf
- Link to the 2014 version description and background notes in Danish:
  http://www.ve.dk/vedvarende-energi-ja-tak
- Direct link to the 2008 update pdf file (140 kB, 6 pp.) in English:
  http://www.inforse.org/europe/pdfs/EnergyVision2030-UK.pdf

"Power to the People", Energy Consumption in Denmark to be Carbon Neutral in 2050, Danish Energy Association, 2009.
The Danish power companies plan to make Danish energy supply carbon neutral by 2050 with biomass and carbon capture and storage (CCS)
Download the report as  pdf file (3.8 MB, 26 pp.) in English from:
http://www.danishenergyassociation.com/Theme/Power_to_the_People.aspx
Direct link to the pdf file (3.8 MB, 26 pp.):
http://www.danishenergyassociation.com/~/media/Power_to_the_people/ Powertothepeople_UK_low.pdf.ashx

The Danish Society of Engineers Energy Plan 2030, 2006
The Plan proposes to cut Danish CO2 emissions by some 65% until 2030:
Download from Danish Society of Engineers (IDA)'s web site
 pdf file (0.5 MB, 14 pp.) in English from:
http://ida.dk/sites/climate/introduction/Sider/Introduction.aspx
Direct link to  pdf file (0.5 MB, 14 pp.):
http://ida.dk/sites/climate/introduction/Documents/Energyplan2030.pdf
The plan was updated in 2009 with a proposal to phase out fossil fuels by 2050 for Denmark.

Reorganisation of the Danish Energy System, 2010
(Danish Tite: Ombygningen af energisystemet, 2010)
Report by
Greenpeace Denmark, showing the tecnical and economical possibilities of changing the Danish energy system, to make it possible for Denmark to fulfill the carbon goals and to become independent of fossil fuels.
Only available in Danish pdf file (5,5 MB, 62 pp.):
http://www.greenpeace.org/denmark/Global/denmark/p2/stop-klimaaendringerne/report/2010/ombygningen-af-energisystemet.pdf

Danmark på nedtrapning, 2010
Description of the energy scenario in the  report "Ombygningen af energisystemet" by Greenpeace (above). The scenario shows the carbon reduction possibilities in the Danish energy sector - 46% by 2020 and 73 % by 2030.
Only available in Danish. Download pdf file (1.4 MB) at:
http://www.greenpeace.org/denmark/Global/denmark/p2/stop-klimaaendringerne/report/2010/danmark-paa-nedtrapning.pdf

Estonia

Estonian INFORSE Vision 2050
Scenario developed by INFORSE-Europe together with the Estonian INFORSE member, Renewable Energy Center TAASEN. The Estonian Vision2050 is similar in structure to the vision for EU but developed to fit to Estonia. Published in November 2011. See more at:
http://www.inforse.org/europe/VisionEST.htm


Finland:

“Towards a Low-Carbon Finland”, Prime Minister’s Office Finland, 2009
The Government adopted in October 2009 the Foresight Report on Long-term Climate and Energy Policy. Setting a target to reduce Finland’s greenhouse gas emissions by at least 80 % from the 1990 level by 2050 as part of an international effort, the report marks out the road to a low-carbon Finland in 2050. The scenarios include CCS, nuclear energy and hydrogen.
The full report pdf file (1.6 MB, 192 pp.), summary and figures can be downloaded in English from the Finish Ministry's web site at:
http://vnk.fi/julkaisukansio/2009/j28-ilmasto-selonteko-j29-klimat-framtidsredogoerelse-j30-climate_/pdf/en.pdf

France:

Scenario from “négaWatt” - October 2011
Phase Out Nuclear Power by 2033: a Scenario that Challenges
Developed  by the association "Négawatt", a team of about 20 experts lead by Thierry Salomon.
It is the 3rd scenario after one in 2006 and 2003.
Download from here (only in French):
http://www.negawatt.org/scenario-negawatt-2011-p46.html
Full Report: pdf file (9.4 MB, 28 pp.)
http://www.negawatt.org/telechargement/SnW11//Scenario_negaWatt_2011-Dossier_de_synthese-v20111005.pdf

The first English presentation by Yves Marignac can be downloaded from the Network's Seminar on October 25, 2011
http://www.lowcarbon-societies.eu/index.php?id=19
Direct link:   (pdf file 1.2 MB, 39 pp.) Negawatt Presentation
 

"Summary of the Analysis of Existing French Low-Carbon Scenarios", December 2009
By Meike Fink, RAC-France
2-page article from the Low Carbon Societies Network's newsletter No. 2.
Download the article Newsletter No. 2, 2009,
pages # 3-4 from: Newsletter


“Scénario énergétique de référence”, DGEMP-OE, 2008
Download from the French Government's web site:
 pdf file (418 kB, 20 pp.) at
files/resource_1/1-%20scenario_energetique-DGEMP.pdf


“Document de prospective SEEDS”, Seeds, 2008
Download from:
http://www.seedsresearch.eu/c/document_library/get_file?p_l_id=14232&folderId=14242&name=DLFE-202.pdf


"Nucléaire: comment en sortir ? Etude sur des sorties du nucléaire en 5 ou 10 ans", Réseau Sortir du Nucléaire, 2007
Download the pdf file of full report (7.6 MB, 92 pp.) in French from:
http://www.sortirdunucleaire.org/index.php?menu=sinformer&sousmenu=brochures&soussousmenu=sorties5ou10ans&page=index
Download an English summary: "Nuclear Energy Phase-Out in France – Summary of the Study on Fast Nuclear Phase-Out within 5 or 10 years", 2007.
Direct link to the pdf file (2.7 MB, 28 pp.): http://www.sortirdunucleaire.org/english/downloads/sorties5ou10ans-eng.pdf


“Perspectives énergétiques de la France à l'horizon 2020-2050” , Centre d'analyse stratégique, Commission énergie - Jean Syrota, 2007
Download  pdf file (1.9 MB, 111 pp.) from
http://www.strategie.gouv.fr/content/les-perspectives-energetiques-de-la-france-l%E2%80%99horizon-2020-2050-0


“Négatep”, Association Sauvons le Climat (SLC), 2007
Négatep claims a division of the CO2 emissions by 4 in 2050 criticizing the NégaWatt scenario.
Download the  pdf file (0.4 MB, 15 pp.) on SLC web site (French), at
http://www.sauvonsleclimat.org/images/articles/pdf_files/etudes/Negatep.pdf


“Rapport du Groupe de travail « Division par quatre des émissions de gaz à effet de serre de la France à l’horizon 2050", sous la présidence de Christian de Boissieu, 2006.
This report gives mainly recommendations how a division by 4 can be reached.
Download pdf file (703 kB, 77 pp.) in French at
/resource_1/2-%20Boissieu_facteur4-rapport.pdf


“NégaWatt” Scenario by Association NégaWatt,  2006
A French energy scenario claiming a CO2 emission division by 4,2 in 2050 compared to 2000.
See the report on Negawatt's web site, at
http://www.negawatt.org/index.htm .
Download the Report (French): pdf file (215 kB, 15 pp.)
http://www.negawatt.org/telechargement/Scenario%20nW2006%20Synthese%20v1.0.2.pdf


"La division par 4 des émissions de dioxyde de carbone en France d’ici 2050", Interministerial Task Force on Climate Change (MIES), 2004.
This study describes 6 different scenarios. The most ambitious one reaches a division by 3,3 of French the CO2 emissions in 2050 compared to 2000. Download the  pdf file (845 kB, 40 pp.) in French at
/resource_1/3%20-%20Facteur4-MIES.pdf


“Politique énergétique nationale et lutte contre l’effet de serre“, Henri PREVOT, 2004
This scenario describes a division by 2,8 of the French CO2 emissions in 2030 compared to 2000. 
Download the pdf file (220 kB, 12 pp.) in Fench at
/resource_1/4%20-%20Prevot-2004.pdf


"Etude pour une prospective énergétique concernant la France", Observatoire de l’Energie, International Energy Agency - Direction Générale de l’Energie et des Matières Premières – ENDERDATA, LEPII, 2004.
This scenario describes a division by 3,1 of the French CO2 emissions in 2050 compared to 2000.
Download pdf file (432 kB, 89 pp.) in French at
/resource_1/5%20-Enderdata_2005-facteur-quatre.pdf


“Un scénario énergétique tendanciel pour la France à l'horizon 2020”, Pierre-Noël Giraud, en collaboration avec Enerdata, 1999
Download the publication from the CERNA's web site in French:
http://www.cerna.ensmp.fr/Documents/PNG_Energie2020.pdf and
http://www.cerna.ensmp.fr/Documents/PNG_AnnalesEnergie.pdf
In case of problems: Download  pdf file (160 kB, 14 pp.):
French_CERNA_PNG_AnnalesEnergie_2020_1999.pdf



“Énergie 2010-2020. Trois scénarios énergétiques pour la France”, Commissariat général du plan, 1998
Download  pdf file (113 kB, 3 pp.) in French:
French_trois-scenarios_2010-20_1998.pdf

 

Germany:

"Stakeholder Integration in Remind-D, Germany", November 2011
 
by Jan Burck, Germanwatch
2-page article from the Low Carbon Societies Network's newsletter No. 8.
Download the article Newsletter No. 8, 2011,
pages # 2-3 from: Newsletter


"Low Energy Scenarios for Germany", December 2009
Comparison by Jan Burck, Germanwatch
1-page article from the Low Carbon Societies Network's newsletter.
Download the article Newsletter No. 2, 2009,
page #2 from: Newsletter


« Lead Study», Study commissioned by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU), 2010
All of the three scenarios bundled in this study aims an 80% reduction of the German CO2 emissions in 2050.
Find the scenario at BMU's website, for the moment only available in German at:
http://www.bmu.de/erneuerbare_energien/downloads/doc/47034.php


« Lead Study», Study commissioned by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU), 2008
The most ambitious one of the scenarios bundled in this study aims an 80% reduction of the German CO2 emissions in 2050 - reference year 1990.
See the scenario at BMU's website, at
http://www.bmu.de/english/renewable_energy/downloads/doc/42726.php



Energieziel 2050: 100% Strom aus erneuerbaren Quellen, 2010
(100% renewable electricity supply by 2050)

Developed by The German Federal Environment Agency, Umwelt Bundes Amt (UBA). Demonstrates how Germany’s electricity supply could be powered completely by renewable energies using technology already on the market today.
The report is available in German, pdf file (12,7 MB, 196 pp.) at:
http://ww.umweltdaten.de/publikationen/fpdf-l/3997.pdf


Climate-friendly, reliable, affordable: 100% renewable electricity supply by 2050, 2010
Developed by German Advisory Body (SRU) on Environment in May 2010. The report describes how Germany can phase out fossil fuel from
its power production by 2050.
http://www.umweltrat.de/SharedDocs/Pressemitteilungen/EN/CurrentPressReleases/2010/2010_05_PressRelease _100percent_renewable_electricity_%20supply.html?nn=396908


“Blueprint Germany – a Strategy for a Climate Safe 2050”, WWF, 2009
‘Blueprint Germany’ has been prepared by Prognos, Öko-Institut and Dr. Ziesing on behalf of WWF. The scenario shows that the transformation from a high-carbon to a low-carbon economy with -95% in 2050 is possible and affordable.
Download publication from WWF's web site:
 pdf file (498 kB, 34 pp.) at
http://www.wwf.de/fileadmin/fm-wwf/pdf_neu/blueprint_germany_wwf.pdf



Greenpeace Plan B
, 2007
The study shows that fasing out of nuclear power is no hindrance for a 40% reduction of the German CO2 emissions by 2015.
http://www.greenpeace.de/themen/klima/kampagnen/ urwaldschutz_ist_klimaschutz/detail/artikel/ energieszenario_klimaschutz_plan_b_fuer_deutschland/


Great Britain:

« ZeroCarbonBritain », Centre for Alternative Technology, 2015, 2013, 2010.
Transition of the UK energy systems until 2030, a policy framework and a scenario to eliminate emissions from fossil fuels within 20 years.
Download the 
Zero Carbon Britain: Make it Happen, 2015, pdf file
Zero Carbon Britain: Rethinking the Future, 2013, pdf file
Zero Carbon Britain: A new Energy Strategy, 2010, pdf file (4.9 MB, 384 pp.) from ZeroCarbonBritain's web site at:
http://www.zerocarbonbritain.org
http://zerocarbonbritain.org/en/zcb-publications
 

WWF UK: «Positive Energy: How Renewable Electricity can Transform the UK by 2030 »
Published by WWF-UK, October 25, 2011
Download the pdf file from:
http://www.wwf.org.uk/wwf_articles.cfm?unewsid=5356

Hungary:

Hungarian Vision 2040, 2014
Hungarian INFORSE Vision 2050, 2011-10
The Hungarian "Visions 2040 and 2050" are similar to the INFORSE's Vision for EU; but developed to fit to Hungary in cooperation with the Hungarian INFORSE member KNE and a group of ELTE University students.
Developed by Béla Munkácsy, KNE (Environmental Education and Planning Association) and the energy planning research group of the ELTE University, Budapest, Hungary.
Read more in English:
http://www.inforse.org/europe/VisionHU.htm
Link to the Hungarian Publication "This is the Way Forward 2.0", 2014.
http://ktf.elte.hu/index.php/erre-van-elore-2-0/
http://ktf.elte.hu/index.php/erre-van-elore-fenntarthato-energiatervezo-kutatocsoport/

Italy:

Energy [R]evolution scenario: Italy
Greenpeace/EREC, 2009
This scenario is based on the European energy scenario produced by
The European Renewable Energy Council (EREC) and Greenpeace
International, which demonstrates how Europe’s CO2 emissions can be reduced by almost 80% by 2050. The Italian scenario provides an
exciting, ambitious and necessary blueprint for how emission reductions can be made in the energy and transport sectors and how Italy’s energy can be sustainably managed up to the middle of this century.
Summary in English is available at:
http://www.greenpeace.org/italy/Global/italy/report/2009/12/energy-revolution-italia-english.pdf



Latvia:

Latvian INFORSE Vision 2050, 2011 / 2007/2009
Developed by INFORSE in cooperation with Latvian INFORSE member Latvian Green Movement in 2007-2009. The Latvian Vision2050 follows the principles of the INFORSE vision for EU. New version is available in 2011.
http://www.inforse.org/europe/VisionLA.htm
 

Lithuania:

Lithuanian INFORSE Vision 2050, 2006/2008/2010
It is developed by INFORSE together with theLithuanian INFORSE member Atgaja. The Lithuanian Vision2050 is similar in structure to the vision for EU. The Vision was first developed in 2006 and was updated in 2008 and 2010 to the current version.
http://www.inforse.org/europe/VisionLT.htm
 

Poland:

Poland's Alternative Energy Policy (AEP) until 2030, Dcember 2009
Developed by the Institute for Sustainable Development, Poland. Result of a 2-year study of developing 6 alternative scenarios for Polish energy future, including nuclear and renewable energy scenarios.
The study was supported by the Herules Program and was cofinanced by the Oak Foundation, Henrich Böll Founation and NFOSIGW.
Download as pdf file (1.5 MB, 81 pp.):
http://www.ine-isd.org.pl/theme/UploadFiles/File/projekty/ekoherkules/ APE_final_document.pdf

"Low-E Dilemmas - How to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and what this means for the Polish economy?", 2012
By WWF Poland/Polish Ecological Club/Institute for Structural Research (IBS)
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 53 percent compared to 1990 levels by Poland to 2030 is possible - according to the Report.
Download as pdf file only in Polish (2.11 MB, 70 pp.) from:
http://m.wwfpl.panda.org/?8240/Polska-moze-obnizyc-emisje-o-53-procent


Romania:

Romanian INFORSE Vision 2050, 2004/2007
The Vision2050 for Romania was developed by INFORSE in cooperation with Earth Friends (Prietenii Pamantului), Romania 2003-2004. A major update was made in 2007.
www.inforse.org/europe/VisionRO.htm


Russia:

Russian INFORSE Vision 2050, 2008
Developed by INFORSE 2007-2008 based on available information on renewable energy potentials, energy consumption, and assumption on future growth in energy service demand and energy efficiency.
www.inforse.org/europe/VisionRU.htm

Energy [R]evolution, A Sustainable Russia Energy Outlook, 2009
The Energy [R]evolution Scenario by Greenpeace Russia and EREC reduces carbon dioxide emissions from the Russian energy sector by 78% by 2050 below 1990 levels. Download pdf file (1.3 MB, 44 pp.):
http://www.energyblueprint.info/fileadmin/media/documents/national/2009/ 04_gpi_e_r__national_russia_lr-1.pdf


Slovakia:

Slovakian INFORSE Vision2050 - Fossil-Free Slovakia
Developed by Emil Bedi, Foundation for Alternative Energy, INFORSE-Europe.
Read more at: http://www.inforse.org/europe/VisionSK.htm


Spain:

ENERGIA 3.O , 2011
100% Renewables: A renewable electricity system for mainland Spain and its economic feasibility, report developed by Greenpeace Spain.
Spanish version: http://revolucionenergetica.es/
Summary in English: http://revolucionenergetica.es/ingles/7_3.html

Renovables 100% - Un sistema eléctrico renovable para la España peninsular y su viabilidad económica, 2006

100% Renewables: A renewable electricity system for mainland Spain and its economic feasibility, report developed by Greenpeace Spain.
Spanish version:
http://www.greenpeace.org/espana/reports/informes-renovables-100/
Summary in English, pdf file (1.1 MB):
http://www.greenpeace.org/espana/Global/espana/report/cambio_climatico/resumen-conclusiones-100-reno-3.pdf

Sweden:

ENERGY SCENARIO for Sweden 2050
August 2011

The report presents an energy scenario for Sweden aiming at providing close to 100% of the energy by renewable energy sources. Renewable resources should be produced with a high level of environmental concern and within the carrying capacity of the ecosystems. As a consequence biomass becomes a limited resource, especially since the transport sector in Sweden relies on fossil energy which needs to be substituted with domestically produced
renewable fuels, and electricity is produced with renewable energy technologies.

Download pdf file (1.78 MB, 100 pp.):
http://www.wwf.se/source.php/1409709/Energy%20Scenario%20for%20Sweden%202050_bakgrundsrapport%20IVL_sep%202011.pdf


Turkey:

The Energy [R]evolution scenario for Turkey
The Energy [R]evolution scenario by Greenpeace and EREC reduces carbon dioxide emissions from the Turkish energy sector by 18% below 1990 levels by 2050.
In English pdf file (1.2 MB): http://www.energyblueprint.info/fileadmin/media/documents/national/2009/ 11_gpi_turkey_eng_lr.pdf

 

Ukraine:

The INFORSE Vision 2050 for Ukraine
Developed by INFORSE-Europe in cooperation with REA. The vision is based on official national forecasts for the development of Ukrainian economy and data from the draft Ukrainian Energy strategy for the period till 2030.
Read more at http://www.inforse.org/europe/VisionUA.htm 

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Mar
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• Newsletter No.9, March 2012March, 2012
Newsletter # 9